MLB Post Season: RedSox out, Rays in

Last Wednesday was surely a crazy day for baseball. It looked like the RedSox had a post season birth all sewn up, but it wasn't to be with the Rays coming back to win from 0-7 in the 8th innings and the RedSox blowing the game needing only one more strike in the 9th.

Yahoo have quoted the chance of the Rays making the playoffs as 1 in 278 million. They don't say from what position (ie mid year, Monday night, Tuesday night, etc). They do rely on (in their words), 'noted statistician Nate Silver' who provided the odds from a NYTimes blog. Here is the maths behind his estimate ...

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

1. The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
2. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
3. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
4. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

If you read the NY Blog or the Yahoo comments, there are a number of people who rip into this maths as wrong ... just plan wrong. Firstly, he says that the chance of the RedSox not making the playoffs is 0.3% (3 in 1000) ... but then a few lines later, he says it is 1 in 278 million. Secondly, #1 and #2, #3 or #4 are not independent. #2 thru #4 are how #1 occurred. Thirdly, #2 and #4 are also not independent.

I am sure that Nate Silver knew or was aware of this ... however, Yahoo picked it up and has been repeating it as the truth ever since ... even after their first story on it got ripped in the comments.

For my take, the RedSox melting down was pretty unlikely, but it has happened before (mets a few years ago, Atlanta Braves this year) ... 3 in 1000 sounds a little low to me. Closes blowing saves (even Bapelbon ... gee, when was the last time he blew a save? Oh ... 8 days before this one on 9/20). Teams escape from losing even when they are down to their last strike (it happened twice on Wednesday night ... Rays and RedSox!).

Before the games started on Wednesday, I would have put the RedSox at a 60/40 to go through - they are playing a poor team while the Rays were playing a good team (but that team was resting its best players). Sure, I would have lengthened the odds when the Rays went down 7-0, but not out to 1 in 10,000 and certainly not to 1 in 278m.

To me, the most amazing thing in this situation was that I could switch between the RedSox game (see them lose), flip over to the Rays game and see the crowd react to the news and then (a few minutes later) see the Rays win.

Schools Open, Drive Carefully

I've been driving lately and seen tons of 'Schools Open, Drive Carefully' signs. This is an annual drive by AAA to remind motorists about watching for children while driving. I fully support this initiative.

However, every time I see the sign my initial cranky reaction is 'what happens at Christmas time ... School is closed, drive carelessly'. AAA go on to say:

• Slow down near schools and in residential areas.
  Drive with your headlights on - even during the day - so children and other drivers can see you.
• Look for clues such as AAA School Safety Patrollers, bicycles and playgrounds that indicate children could be in the area.
• Scan between parked cars and other objects for signs of children.
• Practice extra caution in bad weather.
• Always stop for school buses that are loading or unloading students.
• Ditch distractions - Research shows that taking your eyes off the road for just two seconds doubles your chances of crashing.
• Stay alert - Don't rush into and out of driveways. Expect pedestrians on the sidewalk, especially around schools and in neighborhoods
• Stop at stop signs - It sounds obvious, but research shows that more than one third of drivers roll through stop signs in school zones or neighborhoods.
• Watch for bikes - Children on bicycles are often unpredictable; expect the unexpected.

Shouldn't every driver be doing this all of the time?

Smarter than a 5th Grader

Is my dog smarter than a 5th grader? It depends how you measure smart. He (Dixon - my dog) couldn't give the capital of Panama - well, I don't think he could ... I haven't asked him. However, he does know not to cross the road in front of cars. A 5th grader on the other hand ... isn't that how you are meant to cross the road? In front of cars, when their light is green and I have a 'don't walk' sign? It isn't restricted to 5th graders either ... all US children do it, right up to their 30s or 40s.

The big question is ... why does Dixon know not to cross in front of cars? The answer is that we have taught him never ever ever to walk on the road unless we are there and we give him the go ahead. I am constantly waving cars through that want to stop and let me and my dog cross illegally just so that he doesn't think that he can walk in front of cars. On the rare occasions that he does get away from us, he knows not to cross roads. It has saved his life at least once.

Kids on the other hand are actively taught by the system that crossing roads and ignoring fast moving 2 tons lumps of metal is just the way it is. The school bus stops, kids get off and run across the road - the cars will stop. Kids want to cross against the lights - no problem, the cars stop and let them. Kids want to cross in the middle of blocks. Adults that don't know any better stop and wave them over. Thus, the kids learn that crossing roads is painless, easy and carefree. All you have to do is start walking and everyone else just gets out of the way.

Yes - my dog is smarter than a 5th grader ... mainly because I have taught him not to walk or play on roads, while 5th graders are taught to ignore common sense. And we wonder why people get killed on the roads. Don't get me started on parents that put out signs 'Careful, children playing in street'.

Walk the dog

Stuck? Too close to the problem? Cannot see the way forward?

Well, I have the answer for you - get a dog ... then take said dog for a walk. It does wonders for taking your mind off what ever the issue is / was. For one, you have to think about your dog - what is he doing / is he safe / is he standing in the middle of the road / are there squirrels or bunnies about to distract him, or worst, a skunk!

In between these thoughts you can think about what was puzzling you, you can let your mind wander and give yourself the time and distraction you needed to get the right answer.

Is that all a dog can do for you - make you walk him? Nope. You get back what you put it - teach your dog to kiss and you get kisses. Teach your dog to trust you and you get his undying trust ... Just don't abuse it. Finally, he also teaches you humility - there is nothing quite as earthy as picking up your dog's crap - just don't use one of those scoop things or you miss most of the lesson.

So - what made me Angry?

My wife is a member of Pricescope and posts quite a bit of informative information on their forums about diamonds and similar stuff. I have also posted there 15 times (a totally massive count ... not), mainly on a silly TV show - The Legend of the Seeker.

Anyway, she had mentioned some of the forum's silly rules so I decided to dip my toe in the water ... sure, I was tweaking the mods name but I thought what I posted was ok. I even read the forum rules before posting. The one that I infringed ...

#3 - For your privacy and security do not post any private information including emails, personal pages, and usernames on other sites or IM's on the open forums.

So - what did I post ... "I haven't been watching the second season of Seeker ... mainly I am watching The Mentalist - those guys make me laugh. BTW - if anyone wants to email me, my email is ruff dot hi at gmail dot com. I know that this breaches #3 but I waive my privacy and security in this instance - that email address is more than safe enough".

So - what happened? The post got deleted and I got banned (no warning, no email, just blocked from posting). Pretty bad hey! Other forums that I am on have a warning system so you know when you are pushing the rules. So, was that the worst part? No, my wife also got banned - because I broke the rules. Everyone thinks that my post was actually by Kareyn ... she didn't even know about it and her faced drained of color when I told her about it.

Reading further, I find that pricescope isn't actually a community forum ... it is a privately owned site that restricts member to member contact, does not allow you to post links to flickr, imageshack or the like ("To reduce the number of broken links and keep the forum clean" - what a lame excuse). They allow you to upload pictures, but anything ... ANYTHING that you do upload, post, contribute, etc remains yours but they have full rights to use. You better not post the cure to cancer on their website because they will rob you blind. Here is that section of their forum agreement ...

The Company does not claim ownership of Content you submit or make available for inclusion on the Forum Service. However, by making Content available via the Forum Service You automatically grant (or warrant that the owner of such materials expressly granted) to the Company a perpetual, royalty-free, irrevocable, nonexclusive right and license to use, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish, translate, publicly perform and display, create derivative works from and distribute such materials or incorporate such materials into any form, medium, or technology now known or later developed.

You hereby waive all moral rights in any Content that you author and make available via the Forum Service. You warrant that all moral rights have been waived by the authors of any Content You make available.

The Company, it's staff and it's moderators reserve the full right to remove, edit or move posts by users at anytime without cause or notice.

If they were really concerned about privacy and security, they would force everyone to mail (not email!) their posts in, then a mod would physically remove all identifying information and post the balance. Wait, that wouldn't work - the mods would have your postal address. Guess you would have to put your post inside an envelope and then inside another one - they open the first and throw all of the others into a big bin, then open the others - that would break the link between your post and your postal address. I'll wait for them to implement that level of security and privacy!

Why Blog?

Well, the short answer to that is ... why not? The longer answer is that I now have something to say. Well, I've always had something to say but never really seen the point in a blog ... but now I do.

Something happened the other day that made me angry. Angry enough to dump my spleen in public ... and I want to say this in public. A friend said to my wife the other day that she thought I was getting cranky in my old age. Truth be told, I have been thinking the same thing. I like to think that I am a funny crank but I pretty much know that I'm not. I imagine that I am pretty much just like my father ... get stuck on an issue and just keep talking about it, even when everyone else has turned off the lights, left the room and gone to bed (sorry Dad). Guess this nut hasn't fallen far from the tree.